As many of us try to wrap our heads around the Israeli election, I want to share a few insights.
I know there is a lot of material below. This is all extremely complex.
As always, if you have questions, please feel free to reach out.
From the American Jewish Committee
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to govern. Since neither major bloc reached that threshold, party leaders must negotiate to build a coalition. Support from Arab-led parties could become important, although several parties in Eisenkot’s bloc ruled out including them in a governing coalition during the campaign. (And the Arab parties have made it clear that they will not support Netanyahu.)
Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc — 53 seats
This bloc is led by Likud, Netanyahu’s center-right party, and includes religious and far-right parties.
Likud — 26 seats: Netanyahu’s center-right party.
Shas — 7 seats: An ultra-Orthodox Jewish party led by Aryeh Deri.
United Torah Judaism — 7 seats: An ultra-Orthodox Jewish party led by Ya’akov Asher.
Otzma Yehudit — 7 seats: An extreme nationalist party led by Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Religious Zionism — 6 seats: A religious nationalist party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Eisenkot’s centrist-led bloc — 48 seats
Led by Yashar, Eisenkot’s party, this bloc brings together centrist, right-wing secular, and center-left parties.
Yashar — 21 seats: Eisenkot’s centrist party.
B’Yachad — 12 seats: A centrist party headed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
The Democrats — 8 seats: A center-left party led by former IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Golan.
Yisrael Beiteinu — 7 seats: A right-wing, secular nationalist party led by former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
Arab-led parties — 19 seats
These parties represent predominantly Arab constituencies but differ in their political and ideological approaches. Both also have Jewish members, including Ra’am, whose number two on its candidate list is Jewish. They have historically been less likely to join Israeli governing coalitions, with Ra’am joining in a short-lived government in 2021, but they could play a significant role in coalition negotiations.
Joint List — 12 seats: An Arab-led alliance of Arab nationalist and communist parties led by Yousef Jabereen.
Ra’am — 7 seats: An Arab-led Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas.
From Yaakov Katz the former Editor-in-Chief of The Jerusalem Post, co-founder of MEAD, and Fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and the Nieman Foundation, shared this on X late yesterday:
There are two options right now for Israel following these elections: Either nobody budges and we head to another election, likely sometime in April, or a unity government is formed between
@netanyahu and @gadi_eisenkot, who would bring with him @naftalibennett and potentially @yairlapid
And @AvigdorLiberman
Which raises a simple question: What, exactly, are the ideological differences preventing Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Bennett and Liberman from sitting together in a government? Their parties would have 67 seats – enough to form a stable coalition that would not be held hostage by the demands of small sectoral parties or the extremes of either side.
Do they disagree on Iran? Gaza? Hamas? Palestinian statehood? No. All would do what it takes to stop Iran, believe Hamas needs to be disarmed even by force, and are currently opposed to a Palestinian state. On the economy, all support free markets and private enterprise.
Even on the haredi draft, Netanyahu’s position has been shaped by his dependence on the ultra-Orthodox parties. Remove that dependence, and the political calculation changes with it.
Of course, there are real differences over judicial reform and accountability for October 7. But are they enough to justify another election and continued political paralysis?
Israel faces enormous challenges at home and abroad. A broad coalition of 67 seats could provide the stability needed to confront them.
Another option? One of the right-wing religious parties breaks with Bibi and supports Eisenkot
Check out this possibility here.
From Zvika Klein, the editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, who addresses the complex issues around the Arab parties:
Read Zvika Klein’s comments here.
Majority of opposition voters back Eisenkot-led government with Arab party Ra’am – poll
Read more here.
Leave a Reply